X Presents: Power Rankings (Sim 3)
Nov 12, 2015 7:06:58 GMT
Minnesota, Brooklyn, and 3 more like this
Post by Piraeus on Nov 12, 2015 7:06:58 GMT
Hello!
I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #3!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: *New*! A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation #1: Does Michael finally have help?
Don't look now, but Barcelona has quietly risen to #4 in the power rankings, and is sitting just half a game back of the best record in Eurasia. The offense is blazing at 110.6 points per 100 possessions, good for 3rd in the league. Part of this is definitely the work of MJ himself. He was widely viewed as a bust relative to other top players last season but he's second in EWA now, only behind Barkley. Mirza has recovered from a very slow start and looks to be settling in as a shooter to kick out to for MJ. Ehlers, the other acquisition from Moscow, has been a bust, but the relative improvements of the existing core and Mirza look to have elevated this team to contender status.
Observation #2: Still some volatility in sim #3, as 3 top 15 teams tumble
Cairo, Newcastle, and Madrid all fell at least 9 spots and out of the top 15 (Okay, Cairo is #15). In Madrid's case, the youth is finally catching up as the team faced a rough sim including two losses to the CSKA, Southern Tigers, Maccabi, and Raptors, all 4 at home. That type of effort is just not going to get it done, but despite the poor sim I think Madrid has a solid chance to qualify for the playoffs if they can figure out a proper gameplan - they have the talent. Lucas is at 17, 9 and 4.
Observation #3: When do last year's playoff teams start to get worried?
We're 3 sims in, and Beijing, Zagreb, and Rio all sit well .500 and outside of the top 20 in the rankings. For Zagreb, the key issue is that Macauley just isn't the same and Kidd and company haven't improved enough to offset what was a banner year for him. With Beijing, the problem is also offense. They rank a dreadful 29th in offensive efficiency, as Mikan cannot offset the fact that Dick McGuire, LeRoy Edwards, Don Buse, and Arnie Ferrin are not taking smart shots. Finally, Rio kept sliding after the wrong DC in sim #1, but after a tough road stretch, has gone 7-3 in their last 10. The hole to climb out of was big after a 1-10 start.
Observation #4: There are a lot of flawed teams, as the contenders list is looking like 10 or less.
With teams like Istanbul, Toronto, and San Francisco just outside of the top 10, complete teams are few and far between in the league. The top 10 appears solid, and there are a few outside who should be able to jump back up (I'm looking at you, Mikawa), but the list of quality playoff teams is looking like about a third of the league or less, so we could see some pretty flawed and potentially sub 500 teams in the playoffs this year.
Observation #5: Despite a lack of top end teams, nearly all of the league is competitive
Even though there is a low number of top end teams, the depth and competitiveness the league has assembled is impressive. CSKA, ranked at #31 managed to beat Auckland this sim, and Portland beat Vancouver. Last season, there were 24 teams with a .400 or better winning percentage. This year, there are 28 such teams. With the exception of perhaps Boston and Tapei, anyone can beat anyone on a good night in today's ABCA.
I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #3!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: *New*! A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation #1: Does Michael finally have help?
Don't look now, but Barcelona has quietly risen to #4 in the power rankings, and is sitting just half a game back of the best record in Eurasia. The offense is blazing at 110.6 points per 100 possessions, good for 3rd in the league. Part of this is definitely the work of MJ himself. He was widely viewed as a bust relative to other top players last season but he's second in EWA now, only behind Barkley. Mirza has recovered from a very slow start and looks to be settling in as a shooter to kick out to for MJ. Ehlers, the other acquisition from Moscow, has been a bust, but the relative improvements of the existing core and Mirza look to have elevated this team to contender status.
Observation #2: Still some volatility in sim #3, as 3 top 15 teams tumble
Cairo, Newcastle, and Madrid all fell at least 9 spots and out of the top 15 (Okay, Cairo is #15). In Madrid's case, the youth is finally catching up as the team faced a rough sim including two losses to the CSKA, Southern Tigers, Maccabi, and Raptors, all 4 at home. That type of effort is just not going to get it done, but despite the poor sim I think Madrid has a solid chance to qualify for the playoffs if they can figure out a proper gameplan - they have the talent. Lucas is at 17, 9 and 4.
Observation #3: When do last year's playoff teams start to get worried?
We're 3 sims in, and Beijing, Zagreb, and Rio all sit well .500 and outside of the top 20 in the rankings. For Zagreb, the key issue is that Macauley just isn't the same and Kidd and company haven't improved enough to offset what was a banner year for him. With Beijing, the problem is also offense. They rank a dreadful 29th in offensive efficiency, as Mikan cannot offset the fact that Dick McGuire, LeRoy Edwards, Don Buse, and Arnie Ferrin are not taking smart shots. Finally, Rio kept sliding after the wrong DC in sim #1, but after a tough road stretch, has gone 7-3 in their last 10. The hole to climb out of was big after a 1-10 start.
Observation #4: There are a lot of flawed teams, as the contenders list is looking like 10 or less.
With teams like Istanbul, Toronto, and San Francisco just outside of the top 10, complete teams are few and far between in the league. The top 10 appears solid, and there are a few outside who should be able to jump back up (I'm looking at you, Mikawa), but the list of quality playoff teams is looking like about a third of the league or less, so we could see some pretty flawed and potentially sub 500 teams in the playoffs this year.
Observation #5: Despite a lack of top end teams, nearly all of the league is competitive
Even though there is a low number of top end teams, the depth and competitiveness the league has assembled is impressive. CSKA, ranked at #31 managed to beat Auckland this sim, and Portland beat Vancouver. Last season, there were 24 teams with a .400 or better winning percentage. This year, there are 28 such teams. With the exception of perhaps Boston and Tapei, anyone can beat anyone on a good night in today's ABCA.
