Post by Piraeus on Nov 17, 2015 7:53:52 GMT
Hello!
I built a power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #5!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation: No, really, guys. Auckland is THAT good.
This marks the second consecutive sim that I've had to change the boundaries on my axis because Auckland's score exceeded the limit. They are 1.5 points better than any other team. There are 6 teams that don't even score that in total. Auckland is winning road games at a ridiculous margin of 12 ppg. That's twice as many as the next closet (Chicago), and 3 times as many as the 3rd best (New York). Their worst loss of the entire season was by 7 points. They are crushing teams overall by a dominating 15.1 ppg, and they have won 13 games in a row.
New for Week 5! Let's try to understand where the league is going the rest of the season!
Group #1: Big Fallers
There are few teams who started off very hot but have cooled off significantly over the first 5 sims of the season. None is more notable than Boca, who after ranking in the top 2 for our first two sims has dropped to #16, having lost 9 of their last 12 games. The Eagles were another promising team unfortunately hit with injuries to two starters this year. That leaves Istanbul, Milan, San Antonio, and Portland, which were teams that had nice initial sims (all top 15 teams), but have looked very poor since then. I expect Boca and Newcastle to rebuild from this group in the second half of the season.
Group #2: Big Risers
There are some teams which have made double digit leaps over 5 sims. Of course some, like Perth, Bamberg, and Harlem, are here because of their slow start to the season, but were all teams who were expected to compete for the playoffs. Toronto and Barcelona are the more interesting cases. Toronto, because the team has gone from a suspected lotto team to one of the top teams in the Eastern conference, and no one quite knows how legit they are and how much they can rely on their defense as the season goes on. Barcelona, because they may have made the jump from decent team with a star to real contender, having climbed as high as 3 in the power rankings and still in the top 5. They may slip a bit in the near term, as Michael Jordan is out 2 weeks with a strained back from playing too much golf.
Group #3: Looking to Next Year
After 5 sim, there is a group of teams where we can pretty confidently say they are looking to next year. Some, like the Celtics, Braves, Lakers, Supersonics, and Generals, weren't expected to do much this season. Others, like the Tigers, Jazz, and Flamengo were thought of as possible playoff contenders but the statistics haven't been kind to them, as none have been able to eclipse the top 20. Sure, Corey, or Will (Rio), or Seer could make a blockbuster trade and jump into the playoffs, but this group is looking increasingly like lotto teams as we approach the halfway point.
Group #4: On to the Playoffs
There are 6 teams that have consistently show they are playoff caliber. Among these, we have 4 who have been very stoic in their approach to the year, while the Grizzlies and Timberwolves have made big trades that should clearly affect their outcomes. Vancouver went a shiny 6-0 after dealing their star SG Walt Frazier, and the Timberwolves are a team on the rise having had a midseason burst for Andrew Wiggins (his 22.7 PPG in sim 5 were 8 points above his season average prior to that), and still fresh addition of Sergei Belov. This team is 14-4 over their 18, and anyone who doubted John would make something happen in season 2 was kidding themselves.
Group #5: Muddled Middle
This group is full of teams who have been consistently disappointing but not quite lottery (Beijing, Zagreb), a few strong teams who have failed to put together consistency this year (which includes trade and injuries (Mexico City, Mikawa), and a couple of teams no one knows much about given their new / non existent GMs (San Francisco, Brazil). I expect a few of these teams to solidify themselves in the playoffs in the coming sims (Beijing, Mikawa, Mexico City), and some to embrace their status as rebuilding teams (Zagreb, San Francisco). The big wildcard for me is Tel Aviv. The numbers really like them now after a strong sim, and they have played a road heavy schedule. Just how good is this team behind rookie phenom Elgin Baylor? (26/7/3.5)
Group #6: Unpredictable
Lastly, we have 4 teams I really haven't been able to figure out, who either through trade or injury, or general inconsistency, are bouncing around like crazy. I expect Cairo to tread water enough with Sam Jones to push for the playoffs, but it may be too little too late, and CSKA to punch their way in with Walt leading the team. KK Partizan has been ranked 8th and 30th and Madrid 9th and 26th, I really have no idea how good either actually is at this point. I suspect a big part of it is gameplaning, with a secondary reason being depth. I was more confident about REAL at the season start and I am more favorable on KK Partizan now than earlier in the year, but I don't know if either will be consistent enough to grab a spot in the playoffs.
I built a power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #5!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation: No, really, guys. Auckland is THAT good.
This marks the second consecutive sim that I've had to change the boundaries on my axis because Auckland's score exceeded the limit. They are 1.5 points better than any other team. There are 6 teams that don't even score that in total. Auckland is winning road games at a ridiculous margin of 12 ppg. That's twice as many as the next closet (Chicago), and 3 times as many as the 3rd best (New York). Their worst loss of the entire season was by 7 points. They are crushing teams overall by a dominating 15.1 ppg, and they have won 13 games in a row.
New for Week 5! Let's try to understand where the league is going the rest of the season!
Group #1: Big Fallers
There are few teams who started off very hot but have cooled off significantly over the first 5 sims of the season. None is more notable than Boca, who after ranking in the top 2 for our first two sims has dropped to #16, having lost 9 of their last 12 games. The Eagles were another promising team unfortunately hit with injuries to two starters this year. That leaves Istanbul, Milan, San Antonio, and Portland, which were teams that had nice initial sims (all top 15 teams), but have looked very poor since then. I expect Boca and Newcastle to rebuild from this group in the second half of the season.
Group #2: Big Risers
There are some teams which have made double digit leaps over 5 sims. Of course some, like Perth, Bamberg, and Harlem, are here because of their slow start to the season, but were all teams who were expected to compete for the playoffs. Toronto and Barcelona are the more interesting cases. Toronto, because the team has gone from a suspected lotto team to one of the top teams in the Eastern conference, and no one quite knows how legit they are and how much they can rely on their defense as the season goes on. Barcelona, because they may have made the jump from decent team with a star to real contender, having climbed as high as 3 in the power rankings and still in the top 5. They may slip a bit in the near term, as Michael Jordan is out 2 weeks with a strained back from playing too much golf.
Group #3: Looking to Next Year
After 5 sim, there is a group of teams where we can pretty confidently say they are looking to next year. Some, like the Celtics, Braves, Lakers, Supersonics, and Generals, weren't expected to do much this season. Others, like the Tigers, Jazz, and Flamengo were thought of as possible playoff contenders but the statistics haven't been kind to them, as none have been able to eclipse the top 20. Sure, Corey, or Will (Rio), or Seer could make a blockbuster trade and jump into the playoffs, but this group is looking increasingly like lotto teams as we approach the halfway point.
Group #4: On to the Playoffs
There are 6 teams that have consistently show they are playoff caliber. Among these, we have 4 who have been very stoic in their approach to the year, while the Grizzlies and Timberwolves have made big trades that should clearly affect their outcomes. Vancouver went a shiny 6-0 after dealing their star SG Walt Frazier, and the Timberwolves are a team on the rise having had a midseason burst for Andrew Wiggins (his 22.7 PPG in sim 5 were 8 points above his season average prior to that), and still fresh addition of Sergei Belov. This team is 14-4 over their 18, and anyone who doubted John would make something happen in season 2 was kidding themselves.
Group #5: Muddled Middle
This group is full of teams who have been consistently disappointing but not quite lottery (Beijing, Zagreb), a few strong teams who have failed to put together consistency this year (which includes trade and injuries (Mexico City, Mikawa), and a couple of teams no one knows much about given their new / non existent GMs (San Francisco, Brazil). I expect a few of these teams to solidify themselves in the playoffs in the coming sims (Beijing, Mikawa, Mexico City), and some to embrace their status as rebuilding teams (Zagreb, San Francisco). The big wildcard for me is Tel Aviv. The numbers really like them now after a strong sim, and they have played a road heavy schedule. Just how good is this team behind rookie phenom Elgin Baylor? (26/7/3.5)
Group #6: Unpredictable
Lastly, we have 4 teams I really haven't been able to figure out, who either through trade or injury, or general inconsistency, are bouncing around like crazy. I expect Cairo to tread water enough with Sam Jones to push for the playoffs, but it may be too little too late, and CSKA to punch their way in with Walt leading the team. KK Partizan has been ranked 8th and 30th and Madrid 9th and 26th, I really have no idea how good either actually is at this point. I suspect a big part of it is gameplaning, with a secondary reason being depth. I was more confident about REAL at the season start and I am more favorable on KK Partizan now than earlier in the year, but I don't know if either will be consistent enough to grab a spot in the playoffs.
