Post by Piraeus on Nov 16, 2015 7:09:32 GMT
Hello!
I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #4!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation #1: Why are the numbers so bad for Boca?
So when I first ran the updated rankings yesterday, part of the reason I didn't release the article was that I saw Boca had fallen all the way down to #17. I thought for sure there would be something I could tweak with the formula. But because I ran out of time, because I think there are some pretty scary numbers for Boca, and because this might spark some discussion, I'm leaving it as is. Boca is 17-9, but they have lost 5 in a row. He has the most imbalanced schedule in league, having played 8 more home games than road games to this point. In fact, over his last 6 road games, he is 0-6 and is getting outscored by 20 points per game. There are definitely warning signs. But at the same time, he is a very slight power ranking boost away from being #11, and could easily rise even higher than that next sim. 5 of the next 7 games are on the road, so we'll definitely see how well Boca does.
Observation #2: Toronto doesn't pass the "eye test" for most, but the numbers like them
Toronto is all the way up to #6, which is primarily on the strength of his defense, ranked #2 in the league. His offense, though, is a work in progress, at #19. Which again, goes back to the eye test, because the team's leading scorers are Andrew Gaze and Gerald Wallace. With Tyson Chandler cleaning up the boards, Gerald Wallace on the perimeter, and Elfrid Payton on point, this is an exciting young team and it will be interesting to see how long they can ride their lock down defense to a playoff birth.
Observation #3: Auckland is good...really, really good. A whole lot better than anyone else right now.
This team is just killing it. It is averaging a league high 14.4 points differential. It has a league best .786 winning percentage. It has a league best 10-4 road record. This is the only team in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (though Chicago is close). Hoffman had a rough TC but Ivo and Korac look better, and Gallatin is still going strong, This team has GREAT cohesion. That is definitely a big part of the reason why it has so much success to this point. They definitely have a strong shot to return to the finals.
Observation #4: Belov paying dividends for the Wolves, who look to grab the league now that Vancouver is waving the white flag
The trade has worked out well for the Timberwolves, as Sergei is averaging 18/7.5/6 for the new look Wolves. To improve on the situation, Vancouver made a move for the future after not-as-bad-as-it-looked 14-11 start. That matters a lot less now that Walt is in Moscow. Sure, Vancouver could still challenge but John is already drawing up plans to raise the first division title in Minnesota.
Observation #5: A lot of strong year 1 teams stuck in neutral; trades to come?
We're 4 sims in, and Rio, Zagreb, Beijing, and Newcastle all sit outside of the top 20 in the rankings, and none of them would make the playoffs if they started today. How long before we see some more trades? Newcastle has been making calls to try to obtain a cheap wing player while Juan Antonio San Epifanio is out with an injury. Beijing has been visibly frustrated but has not yet committed to a tear down or a boost of energy via trade, Rio has been silent, and Zagreb's GM recently angrily remarked at a post conference "Train.Wreck. I still have picks though." Will we see big moves after sim 5?
I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim. Here are the results after sim #4!
The power ranking formula has three components
Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential. Road and Home adjusted.
RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
Recent Score: A measure of how a team is playing recently over the last 30 calendar days. Road and Home adjusted.
The formula may be tweaked over time as I see more data.
Observation #1: Why are the numbers so bad for Boca?
So when I first ran the updated rankings yesterday, part of the reason I didn't release the article was that I saw Boca had fallen all the way down to #17. I thought for sure there would be something I could tweak with the formula. But because I ran out of time, because I think there are some pretty scary numbers for Boca, and because this might spark some discussion, I'm leaving it as is. Boca is 17-9, but they have lost 5 in a row. He has the most imbalanced schedule in league, having played 8 more home games than road games to this point. In fact, over his last 6 road games, he is 0-6 and is getting outscored by 20 points per game. There are definitely warning signs. But at the same time, he is a very slight power ranking boost away from being #11, and could easily rise even higher than that next sim. 5 of the next 7 games are on the road, so we'll definitely see how well Boca does.
Observation #2: Toronto doesn't pass the "eye test" for most, but the numbers like them
Toronto is all the way up to #6, which is primarily on the strength of his defense, ranked #2 in the league. His offense, though, is a work in progress, at #19. Which again, goes back to the eye test, because the team's leading scorers are Andrew Gaze and Gerald Wallace. With Tyson Chandler cleaning up the boards, Gerald Wallace on the perimeter, and Elfrid Payton on point, this is an exciting young team and it will be interesting to see how long they can ride their lock down defense to a playoff birth.
Observation #3: Auckland is good...really, really good. A whole lot better than anyone else right now.
This team is just killing it. It is averaging a league high 14.4 points differential. It has a league best .786 winning percentage. It has a league best 10-4 road record. This is the only team in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (though Chicago is close). Hoffman had a rough TC but Ivo and Korac look better, and Gallatin is still going strong, This team has GREAT cohesion. That is definitely a big part of the reason why it has so much success to this point. They definitely have a strong shot to return to the finals.
Observation #4: Belov paying dividends for the Wolves, who look to grab the league now that Vancouver is waving the white flag
The trade has worked out well for the Timberwolves, as Sergei is averaging 18/7.5/6 for the new look Wolves. To improve on the situation, Vancouver made a move for the future after not-as-bad-as-it-looked 14-11 start. That matters a lot less now that Walt is in Moscow. Sure, Vancouver could still challenge but John is already drawing up plans to raise the first division title in Minnesota.
Observation #5: A lot of strong year 1 teams stuck in neutral; trades to come?
We're 4 sims in, and Rio, Zagreb, Beijing, and Newcastle all sit outside of the top 20 in the rankings, and none of them would make the playoffs if they started today. How long before we see some more trades? Newcastle has been making calls to try to obtain a cheap wing player while Juan Antonio San Epifanio is out with an injury. Beijing has been visibly frustrated but has not yet committed to a tear down or a boost of energy via trade, Rio has been silent, and Zagreb's GM recently angrily remarked at a post conference "Train.Wreck. I still have picks though." Will we see big moves after sim 5?
