Post by Piraeus on Nov 7, 2015 9:37:35 GMT
Hello!
Welcome to a new power rankings article I (Xeneise) will be doing periodically as I have time. I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim.
The power ranking formula has three components
The formula will probably be tweaked over time as I see more data.
As sim #1 is always a little wonky, rather than rank them straight by their scores, I'll group then into divisions based on similarities and assess their season start so far.
The "Wake me up when lottery happens" Division
#36. Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics check in by far the worst team in the league nearly achieving the worst possible score of 0 based on my formula. Eddie "max contract" jones is lighting it up with 8.7 PPG on 39% shooting. Yikes. Dimitris Diamantidis has a disappointing opening sim when he was expected to rise up over a relatively inexperienced roster, but Embiid and KC Jones look promising. This team is in for a long season and the GM knows it.
#35. Los Angeles Lakers
Bill Russell! The rookie is averaging 23 and 11 on what is an otherwise dreadful team. Michael Adams still can't shoot and is just a volume scorer at this point, and there is not much else there. This team lost a lot of games to good teams but kept a relatively tight margin of -5.8, which is why their power score is higher, and it means they are likely to climb a bit once they start playing lesser teams.
#34. Washington Generals
Washington's GM deliberated over Bogut on draft night, and got flack during training camp when reports that Bogut was really struggling came out. Who's laughing now? Bogut averaged 20 and 11, albeit in 40 MPG in his first 7 games to begin his career. Even better, fellow rookie John Havlicek is averaging 27/6/5. This is an amazing promising core for an otherwise dull roster. It'll be a dull season but it will certainly pay off eventually.
#33. New Orleans Jazz
Tony Parker is looking like a budding superstar. Getting to the line over 6 times a night and picking up a steady three point shot in the early goings. Finley and Richardson can also fill it up. However, the Jazz are a mess defensively, giving up 111 points per 100 possessions, good for #32 in the league.
#31. Fubon Braves
After scrapping together a respectable 35-47 finish last year in a tough division, Fubon superficially looks like one of the worst teams in the league this year. Without Jack Nichols and Vern Fleming, some regression was going to happen, but I thought Gordon and Jefferson might do more. In retrospect, this team might be in the running for the top pick now that we've seen their team play a few games.
#29. Boston Celtics
This team will round out our bottom division. Chris Paul surprising has been a very effective scorer but is outside of the top 25 in assists so far. David Wesley is playing well at the SG position, and Joe Smith and Thad Young have stepped in nicely in place of Jeff Green at the forward spot. There is not much beyond that though, and while this team has more talent than a few teams below it, it's celing is pretty limited as it looks to build on Paul next draft.
The "Young & Scrappy" Division
#28. Toronto Raptors
Toronto has a bunch of young bigs and a surprisingly effective Gerald Wallace. Andrew Gaze is leading this team in scoring. This is a bit reason they're just 24th in offensive efficiency. Tyson Chandler has been a disappointment relative to his creation draft position and his ratings (just 10pts and 8reb so far this year).
#24. Guangdong Southern Tigers
The Tigers has a bunch of young guns here, but none of them have pushed 14 PPG so far. It's a bit surprising after Arenas and Parker both scored over 20 ppg and Parker won ROY. I'm sure the scoring will pick up, as this team continues to develop from the ground up while exercising excellent restraint in trading away all of them for shiny new toys.
#22. Moscow CSKA
Someone named Bob Duffy is 2nd in scoring and they are over 500. That won't last. Randle and Granger are nice pieces, but this team won't repeat the playoff success of the veterans who have since parted ways with Moscow of last season. Also, RIP Derek's SSOL 3 point offensive arsenal.
#17. Tel Aviv Maccabi
The model rates Tel Aviv just 17 despite a 5-2 start given their weak differential. I think this is a case of a young team getting off to a promising start but that will fall back to Earth. Baylor is better than advertised but this team just doesn't have the horses to go the distance. If they start shipping off Bowen and other for better pieces now, perhaps that could change.
The "Wake me up when the season starts...wait, the season started?" Division
#32. Rio De Janeiro Flamengo
The division title probably applies to Rio more than any other team. Regrettably, their GM had some communication issues and the roster was never changed from the preseason approach. Victor Zubkov and Terry Porter got an extended vacation. This team won't stay down at #32 for long, it's too talented.
#30. Harlem Globetrotters
Unlike those in Rio and unfortunately for Harlem, Julius Irving did play, and it didn't matter much. The team lost 5 of their first 7 games even though 5 of them were at home. Defense was a pretty big issue, as Harlem ranks #27 in defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, this is a talented team that doesn't belong at #30 and it will improve in a sim or two.
#27. Perth Wildcats
Surprising, the offense is a litle better than I expected, and the defense is a little worse, so it's hard to attribute their 2-4 start to that. No matter what the efficiency metrics say, Bob MacAdoo needs help, and while Benoit Benjamin is a real nice player, he can't keep playing Robin if Perth wants to sniff the playoffs.
#26. Zagreb KK Cibona
Ed MacCauley is human and KK Cibona is struggling. Not surprising. After averaging 23 and 8 last season, MacCauley is sitting at only 18 PPG this year, which doesn't seem like much, but is probably the biggest reason Cibona is struggling at this point.
#25. Bamberg Brose Baskets
Bamberg to me seems like always in a perpetual state of competing and rebuilding, but is less flashy about it than Seer. (Though props to Seer for building those Tigers the right way!). With the team shipping off Kurland, it struggled out of the gate, and is probably facing a bigger identity crisis than most in the league. Do they compete, do they rebuild? I am betting on the latter, so I expect PeeWee to exit stage left within a sim or two.
The "We're for real!...I hope" Division
#15. San Antonio Spurs
Quite frankly, I'm pretty shocked the Spurs have done this well. I didn't think Emiliano Rodriguez would turn it around much but he's played better there, and the late addition of Kurland helps a bunch. Bibby continues to be a black hole offensively, and there is not much depth to speak of. I'd start Brooks over Bibby. This team has major flaws it needs to address to convince me it's serious about the playoffs.
#14. Portland Trailblazers
Chris Mullin is off to a blazin' start well above his season 1 numbers, and this team despite sitting at 2-5 is ranked #14 because of its 2nd ranked SOS so far. They've added a starter in Bill McGill, but I don't know if that's enough to do much in an improved American Conference.
#13. Real Madrid
Unlike San Antonio and Portland, I have more faith that this team could be for real. Dumars is the best guard that no one ever talks about, and Jerry Lucas is a playmaker (17/10/4 in sim 1). With above average depth, this REAL squad could even push the playoffs this year with a strong game plan.
#12. Olimpia Milano
I probably believe in Milan even less than Portland and San Antonio, but they're 4-2 with a +5 differential. It's a solid level of play for sim 1. Sheed continues to improve and Spudd Webb has stepped up, but the talent just isn't here to sustain a long run above .500.
#11. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is almost Cairo-West, but with 3 players instead of 2. Okay, I guess they have Westphal too. Given that KG is probably close in value to Stockton, this team almost certainly should beat Cairo's high 40's wins of last year, as the overall power in the league hasn't changed much in just 1 season. Ewing under 20PPG is a bit surprising but he'll be fine.
#10. Istanbul Anadolu Efes
Istanbul in the top 10? I know, right? Terry D has really helped to bolster the scoring. I think my formula is probably giving their RPI too much weight here. They are over 500, for how long that'll last, it remains to be seen. They won't be a top 10 team though. We'll have to see how it evens out with more data.
#8. Belgrade KK Partizan
This team is in the top 10 and has the metrics to back it up. They are 5-2 with a +8 differential. They have balanced scoring with Gasol/Johnson/Bynum/Sessions all over 15. I don't know that they can sustain this level of play, but Belgrade certainly looks to be better in 2001.
#6. Brazil Franca BC
The GM-less team checked in at #6 in our power ranking. 6-1 and with a double digit differential, Earl Monroe is playing out of his mind shooting over 50% from 3. Dave D has been solid in limited minutes, but it's a testament to their interim coach *cough John cough* of putting together a great gameplan.
The "Hold your horses...we're still tinkering with it" Division
#23. Beijing Aoshen
Yeah...the model has Beijing at #23 here...but because it's sim 1 and because I have this team much closer to the ones in this group, we're sticking Beijing here. Who knows what went wrong in sim 1, but the statistics back up that Beijing is playing like a below average team right now. That'll change.
#21. San Francisco Warriors
Modestas Paulaukas is somehow leading this team is scoring. It's probably while it's ranked only 21 despite (I think?) being the preseason #1 team. I think it's probably closer to #21 in true talent than #1, so while this team may improve, a lack of depth, and limited scoring options will limit their ceiling
#20. Cairo Zamalek
Cairo has predictably struggled after losing Ewing and inserting Sam Jones. I like Jones a lot, but Ewing clearly impacts the game more at this stage of the game. I think the GM is a little more prepared to make this a rebuilding season than last year, and I'm interested to see what happens, especially given the early success of others in the division.
#19. Mexico City Titans
No one would peg Mexico as the 19th best team but statistically, they have played that way according to one model. Pau missed 2 games after a monster start (29PPG), and the team went through a relatively tough road stretch. Expect to see things improve in sim 2 even without Pau.
#18. Aisin Seahorses
Aisin is the dangerous sleeper that cooks up a secret recipe in his lab and unleashes it on everyone (read: me) in the playoffs. Xavier McDaniels is his latest project, as they recently converted PF is averaging 29 PPG, good for top 5 in the league. Who know what we'll see this year. I am interested to see if he trades for a real guard or continues to take 8 three's a game as a team.
#16. Barcelona Regal FC
Jeb made an effort to put talent around Michael, but the team is struggling. Mirza is averaging an anemic 8.7 PPG and Bulbs Elhers has been a non-factor. Hopefully Jeb can tweak this roster to get more outside of MJ's complimentary pieces otherwise it could be another season in the lotto.
#9. Newcastle Eagles
Newcastle gets a drop into this division for missing the playoffs with Hakeem last year, but they are playing well so far this year and even have already endured an injury to their starting guard Howard Eisley. This team has the same depth problems as last year but is looking to take advantage of a lot of shakeup in the division with CSKA, Bamberg, and Barcelona all struggling (purposefully or not).
The "Business As Usual" Division
#7. Vancouver Grizzlies
A bit of a weak sim for the defending champions, but nothing to panic about at all. Some were worried about Sabonis in TC but he looks fine and Walt looks good, except for his outside shot. Sam Perkins is going to be an excellent fit for this team which launches more 3's than anyone at the moment.
#5. Piraeus Olympiacos BC
Piraeus has engineered a very balanced offense that relies on 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG. This has resulted into a pretty efficient attack which was a bit of a surprise, and the defense actually gave a few games away (134 points to the Jazz!) The team looks well positioned to try and defend its division title.
#4. New York Knicks
Greg Oden has had a nice start to the season and is probably a candidate for most improved player with averages of 26/11. He's playing better than Mel Daniels who was All League 2nd team last year. Wilson Chandler has had a strong start. Does he become the long term solution at SF?
#3. Auckland Breakers
Auckland appears to be suffering a bit from aging of Gallatin and Hoffman, but you wouldn't know it from their 6-0 record. Ivo Daneu has stepped up to average 20/6/6. Korac continues to play like an allstar. This team is going to be really good again.
#2. Chicago Bulls
Is Barkley still amazing? Yup. Chicago still has a weird roster configuration for me with a lack of pure wings, but they have a whole lot of talent in the frontcourt, and with Conley at PG. New York and Chicago will have some fun divisional battles again this year.
#1. Buenos Aires Boca Juniors
Surprised? I was a little bit. A strong winning percentage, pts differential, and SOS (12th) has placed Boca on top for 1 sim. Al Horford is really good, and Durant had a quiet (for him) but very efficient sim. This team is going to be good for a long time, and is already competing for titles.
Welcome to a new power rankings article I (Xeneise) will be doing periodically as I have time. I built an automatic power ranking engine that I can update when I drop in new data after each sim.
The power ranking formula has three components
- Power Score: An assessment of how dominant a team is, primarily measured by their differential
- RPI Score: Measured by a teams raw winning %, strength of schedule, and strength of opponents schedules
- Recent Score: A measure of how a team is playing recently. This score will be excluded until there is enough of a baseline
The formula will probably be tweaked over time as I see more data.
As sim #1 is always a little wonky, rather than rank them straight by their scores, I'll group then into divisions based on similarities and assess their season start so far.
The "Wake me up when lottery happens" Division
#36. Seattle Supersonics
The Sonics check in by far the worst team in the league nearly achieving the worst possible score of 0 based on my formula. Eddie "max contract" jones is lighting it up with 8.7 PPG on 39% shooting. Yikes. Dimitris Diamantidis has a disappointing opening sim when he was expected to rise up over a relatively inexperienced roster, but Embiid and KC Jones look promising. This team is in for a long season and the GM knows it.
#35. Los Angeles Lakers
Bill Russell! The rookie is averaging 23 and 11 on what is an otherwise dreadful team. Michael Adams still can't shoot and is just a volume scorer at this point, and there is not much else there. This team lost a lot of games to good teams but kept a relatively tight margin of -5.8, which is why their power score is higher, and it means they are likely to climb a bit once they start playing lesser teams.
#34. Washington Generals
Washington's GM deliberated over Bogut on draft night, and got flack during training camp when reports that Bogut was really struggling came out. Who's laughing now? Bogut averaged 20 and 11, albeit in 40 MPG in his first 7 games to begin his career. Even better, fellow rookie John Havlicek is averaging 27/6/5. This is an amazing promising core for an otherwise dull roster. It'll be a dull season but it will certainly pay off eventually.
#33. New Orleans Jazz
Tony Parker is looking like a budding superstar. Getting to the line over 6 times a night and picking up a steady three point shot in the early goings. Finley and Richardson can also fill it up. However, the Jazz are a mess defensively, giving up 111 points per 100 possessions, good for #32 in the league.
#31. Fubon Braves
After scrapping together a respectable 35-47 finish last year in a tough division, Fubon superficially looks like one of the worst teams in the league this year. Without Jack Nichols and Vern Fleming, some regression was going to happen, but I thought Gordon and Jefferson might do more. In retrospect, this team might be in the running for the top pick now that we've seen their team play a few games.
#29. Boston Celtics
This team will round out our bottom division. Chris Paul surprising has been a very effective scorer but is outside of the top 25 in assists so far. David Wesley is playing well at the SG position, and Joe Smith and Thad Young have stepped in nicely in place of Jeff Green at the forward spot. There is not much beyond that though, and while this team has more talent than a few teams below it, it's celing is pretty limited as it looks to build on Paul next draft.
The "Young & Scrappy" Division
#28. Toronto Raptors
Toronto has a bunch of young bigs and a surprisingly effective Gerald Wallace. Andrew Gaze is leading this team in scoring. This is a bit reason they're just 24th in offensive efficiency. Tyson Chandler has been a disappointment relative to his creation draft position and his ratings (just 10pts and 8reb so far this year).
#24. Guangdong Southern Tigers
The Tigers has a bunch of young guns here, but none of them have pushed 14 PPG so far. It's a bit surprising after Arenas and Parker both scored over 20 ppg and Parker won ROY. I'm sure the scoring will pick up, as this team continues to develop from the ground up while exercising excellent restraint in trading away all of them for shiny new toys.
#22. Moscow CSKA
Someone named Bob Duffy is 2nd in scoring and they are over 500. That won't last. Randle and Granger are nice pieces, but this team won't repeat the playoff success of the veterans who have since parted ways with Moscow of last season. Also, RIP Derek's SSOL 3 point offensive arsenal.
#17. Tel Aviv Maccabi
The model rates Tel Aviv just 17 despite a 5-2 start given their weak differential. I think this is a case of a young team getting off to a promising start but that will fall back to Earth. Baylor is better than advertised but this team just doesn't have the horses to go the distance. If they start shipping off Bowen and other for better pieces now, perhaps that could change.
The "Wake me up when the season starts...wait, the season started?" Division
#32. Rio De Janeiro Flamengo
The division title probably applies to Rio more than any other team. Regrettably, their GM had some communication issues and the roster was never changed from the preseason approach. Victor Zubkov and Terry Porter got an extended vacation. This team won't stay down at #32 for long, it's too talented.
#30. Harlem Globetrotters
Unlike those in Rio and unfortunately for Harlem, Julius Irving did play, and it didn't matter much. The team lost 5 of their first 7 games even though 5 of them were at home. Defense was a pretty big issue, as Harlem ranks #27 in defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, this is a talented team that doesn't belong at #30 and it will improve in a sim or two.
#27. Perth Wildcats
Surprising, the offense is a litle better than I expected, and the defense is a little worse, so it's hard to attribute their 2-4 start to that. No matter what the efficiency metrics say, Bob MacAdoo needs help, and while Benoit Benjamin is a real nice player, he can't keep playing Robin if Perth wants to sniff the playoffs.
#26. Zagreb KK Cibona
Ed MacCauley is human and KK Cibona is struggling. Not surprising. After averaging 23 and 8 last season, MacCauley is sitting at only 18 PPG this year, which doesn't seem like much, but is probably the biggest reason Cibona is struggling at this point.
#25. Bamberg Brose Baskets
Bamberg to me seems like always in a perpetual state of competing and rebuilding, but is less flashy about it than Seer. (Though props to Seer for building those Tigers the right way!). With the team shipping off Kurland, it struggled out of the gate, and is probably facing a bigger identity crisis than most in the league. Do they compete, do they rebuild? I am betting on the latter, so I expect PeeWee to exit stage left within a sim or two.
The "We're for real!...I hope" Division
#15. San Antonio Spurs
Quite frankly, I'm pretty shocked the Spurs have done this well. I didn't think Emiliano Rodriguez would turn it around much but he's played better there, and the late addition of Kurland helps a bunch. Bibby continues to be a black hole offensively, and there is not much depth to speak of. I'd start Brooks over Bibby. This team has major flaws it needs to address to convince me it's serious about the playoffs.
#14. Portland Trailblazers
Chris Mullin is off to a blazin' start well above his season 1 numbers, and this team despite sitting at 2-5 is ranked #14 because of its 2nd ranked SOS so far. They've added a starter in Bill McGill, but I don't know if that's enough to do much in an improved American Conference.
#13. Real Madrid
Unlike San Antonio and Portland, I have more faith that this team could be for real. Dumars is the best guard that no one ever talks about, and Jerry Lucas is a playmaker (17/10/4 in sim 1). With above average depth, this REAL squad could even push the playoffs this year with a strong game plan.
#12. Olimpia Milano
I probably believe in Milan even less than Portland and San Antonio, but they're 4-2 with a +5 differential. It's a solid level of play for sim 1. Sheed continues to improve and Spudd Webb has stepped up, but the talent just isn't here to sustain a long run above .500.
#11. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is almost Cairo-West, but with 3 players instead of 2. Okay, I guess they have Westphal too. Given that KG is probably close in value to Stockton, this team almost certainly should beat Cairo's high 40's wins of last year, as the overall power in the league hasn't changed much in just 1 season. Ewing under 20PPG is a bit surprising but he'll be fine.
#10. Istanbul Anadolu Efes
Istanbul in the top 10? I know, right? Terry D has really helped to bolster the scoring. I think my formula is probably giving their RPI too much weight here. They are over 500, for how long that'll last, it remains to be seen. They won't be a top 10 team though. We'll have to see how it evens out with more data.
#8. Belgrade KK Partizan
This team is in the top 10 and has the metrics to back it up. They are 5-2 with a +8 differential. They have balanced scoring with Gasol/Johnson/Bynum/Sessions all over 15. I don't know that they can sustain this level of play, but Belgrade certainly looks to be better in 2001.
#6. Brazil Franca BC
The GM-less team checked in at #6 in our power ranking. 6-1 and with a double digit differential, Earl Monroe is playing out of his mind shooting over 50% from 3. Dave D has been solid in limited minutes, but it's a testament to their interim coach *cough John cough* of putting together a great gameplan.
The "Hold your horses...we're still tinkering with it" Division
#23. Beijing Aoshen
Yeah...the model has Beijing at #23 here...but because it's sim 1 and because I have this team much closer to the ones in this group, we're sticking Beijing here. Who knows what went wrong in sim 1, but the statistics back up that Beijing is playing like a below average team right now. That'll change.
#21. San Francisco Warriors
Modestas Paulaukas is somehow leading this team is scoring. It's probably while it's ranked only 21 despite (I think?) being the preseason #1 team. I think it's probably closer to #21 in true talent than #1, so while this team may improve, a lack of depth, and limited scoring options will limit their ceiling
#20. Cairo Zamalek
Cairo has predictably struggled after losing Ewing and inserting Sam Jones. I like Jones a lot, but Ewing clearly impacts the game more at this stage of the game. I think the GM is a little more prepared to make this a rebuilding season than last year, and I'm interested to see what happens, especially given the early success of others in the division.
#19. Mexico City Titans
No one would peg Mexico as the 19th best team but statistically, they have played that way according to one model. Pau missed 2 games after a monster start (29PPG), and the team went through a relatively tough road stretch. Expect to see things improve in sim 2 even without Pau.
#18. Aisin Seahorses
Aisin is the dangerous sleeper that cooks up a secret recipe in his lab and unleashes it on everyone (read: me) in the playoffs. Xavier McDaniels is his latest project, as they recently converted PF is averaging 29 PPG, good for top 5 in the league. Who know what we'll see this year. I am interested to see if he trades for a real guard or continues to take 8 three's a game as a team.
#16. Barcelona Regal FC
Jeb made an effort to put talent around Michael, but the team is struggling. Mirza is averaging an anemic 8.7 PPG and Bulbs Elhers has been a non-factor. Hopefully Jeb can tweak this roster to get more outside of MJ's complimentary pieces otherwise it could be another season in the lotto.
#9. Newcastle Eagles
Newcastle gets a drop into this division for missing the playoffs with Hakeem last year, but they are playing well so far this year and even have already endured an injury to their starting guard Howard Eisley. This team has the same depth problems as last year but is looking to take advantage of a lot of shakeup in the division with CSKA, Bamberg, and Barcelona all struggling (purposefully or not).
The "Business As Usual" Division
#7. Vancouver Grizzlies
A bit of a weak sim for the defending champions, but nothing to panic about at all. Some were worried about Sabonis in TC but he looks fine and Walt looks good, except for his outside shot. Sam Perkins is going to be an excellent fit for this team which launches more 3's than anyone at the moment.
#5. Piraeus Olympiacos BC
Piraeus has engineered a very balanced offense that relies on 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG. This has resulted into a pretty efficient attack which was a bit of a surprise, and the defense actually gave a few games away (134 points to the Jazz!) The team looks well positioned to try and defend its division title.
#4. New York Knicks
Greg Oden has had a nice start to the season and is probably a candidate for most improved player with averages of 26/11. He's playing better than Mel Daniels who was All League 2nd team last year. Wilson Chandler has had a strong start. Does he become the long term solution at SF?
#3. Auckland Breakers
Auckland appears to be suffering a bit from aging of Gallatin and Hoffman, but you wouldn't know it from their 6-0 record. Ivo Daneu has stepped up to average 20/6/6. Korac continues to play like an allstar. This team is going to be really good again.
#2. Chicago Bulls
Is Barkley still amazing? Yup. Chicago still has a weird roster configuration for me with a lack of pure wings, but they have a whole lot of talent in the frontcourt, and with Conley at PG. New York and Chicago will have some fun divisional battles again this year.
#1. Buenos Aires Boca Juniors
Surprised? I was a little bit. A strong winning percentage, pts differential, and SOS (12th) has placed Boca on top for 1 sim. Al Horford is really good, and Durant had a quiet (for him) but very efficient sim. This team is going to be good for a long time, and is already competing for titles.
Not sure it's anywhere near sustainable considering all teams I've beaten but 1 or 2 are sub-.500 teams.
