Post by Portland on Apr 8, 2016 14:12:54 GMT
Training Camp may be a crap shoot for a lot of players, but we know that in general more players get better in camp than die. Some get much better. Until camp actually comes around each season and our hopes are dashed, there’s a lot of optimism among gms about certain players who might not just get a little better, but actually may be due for a big leap forward. Personally I always like to focus on the ‘sleepers’ – guys who could indeed get much better - and there are some intriguing ones this time around. Looking ahead at training camp, then, here are my personal projections players I expect to be fun to watch this year. Each has been assigned a Leap Likelihood rating (LL). Not all of them are obvious choices:
Steve Smith – LL 40%. He’s already a very good player, and I think he’s about to become a star. The Warriors obviously thing so too, drafting him at #4 last season. Stevie started all 82 games for San Fran and got plenty of minutes to acclimate himself to the ABCA. On the offensive end he’s already really good, and just wait until his inside game comes around. We think he’s going to become an even better ball-handler this season and hopefully parlay his length and athleticism into a future as at least an average defender. Right now he’s nothing special in that area, but a leap is certainly possible in that and every other facet of his makeup.
Dario Saric – LL 25%. Already 24 with four ABCA seasons under his belt, Daric has a reputation for underplaying his ratings so far. He took a slight step backwards in some stat categories this past season. I think he turns it around this year and finally gets to shine with (hopefully) some stronger players around him. Melo’s arrival helps but he needs someone to get him the ball and involve him in the offense more. As far as his skills, the leap would have to come in shot-blocking and hands. We can see him getting to the line more and shooting better when he gets there.
Billy Owens – LL 30%. Billy was an older rookie with the Celtics last season and mostly rode the pine for a very good team. He’s another late first rounder. When he did play Billy was a very good shooter inside and outside. I see more upside there as well as at the foul line where he’s been pretty bad so far. He can help on the boards against taller guys, and as a defender I think he’s going to become a lot tougher than he’s been so far. With his offensive capability I think he starts for a lot of teams… but in Boston’s twin tower setup, probably not in Beantown.
Kenny Anderson – LL 35%. As a rookie last year Kenny did some nice things for the Titans. A mid first-round pick that’s looking like good value for where he was drafted, Mr. Chibbs handled the rock well for a rookie in his first season. Shooting is where we see the improvement coming, and if it happens (actually it better happen) he’ll be a weapon beside Archie Clark in the Mexico backcourt. He’ll never be Walt Frazier but I think he grows into a solid combo guard, sooner than later.
Al Thornton – LL 25%. Al became sneaky good last season after getting regular minutes for the first time in his four-year career. I still see plenty of upside for the 23 year-old. I expect his defense and rebounding to continue to blossom and make him a capable starter for the Bulls in the ABCA. His getting from the line has got to come this season, and I expect it will. What Al won’t do in camp is become a lane-slasher but his outside touch for a big man makes him a commodity in certain offenses.
Zelmo Beaty – LL 20%. Drafted in the middle of the first round three years ago, The Original Big Z is now 25 and the oldest player we’re discussing here. He’s starter grade now, has reached the twenty ppg level, and the potential is there to improve a shade or two more down low as a scorer and rebounder. That would make him even more of a handful. He seems from my perspective to outplay his ratings. These late-growth guys are fun and we’re sure the Widcat gm is happy to have Zelmo in the lineup every night.
Lou Hudson – LL 45%. Lou was the number eigth selection last season, by the Boca Juniors, and the scouts at that time thought he could be a special player. Now one season and 82 starts later, Sweet Lou is poised to do it. Putting 14 points a night on the board in his first year with upside as a shooter from everywhere on the floor, we’re talking about a guy on his way to 22 ppg very soon. I also see his defense getting stronger too. If he camps well there’s no reason he can’t become an all-star. I really, really like Lou Hudson to make a move in 2004.
Larry Johnson – LL 50%. The ABCA Rookie of the Year came into the league in full beast-mode, and I don’t think he’s done improving. Not at all. His Barkley-ish makeup is truly scary, and I expect camp improvements just about across the board. The Raptors will be riding Johnson like a Clydsdale this year.
Rick Fox – LL: 25%. Rick Fox? Why Rick Fox? Tarheel Rick was a late first round pick of the Olimpia. He started 34 games for the club and got 20 minutes a game, not shooting with much efficiency but doing the little things well. He handles the ball fairly well for a young wing looks like he can eventually hold his own on the defensive end. We like his upside and future as a sixth man on a good team looks solid.
Dario Saric – LL 25%. Already 24 with four ABCA seasons under his belt, Daric has a reputation for underplaying his ratings so far. He took a slight step backwards in some stat categories this past season. I think he turns it around this year and finally gets to shine with (hopefully) some stronger players around him. Melo’s arrival helps but he needs someone to get him the ball and involve him in the offense more. As far as his skills, the leap would have to come in shot-blocking and hands. We can see him getting to the line more and shooting better when he gets there.Billy Owens – LL 30%. Billy was an older rookie with the Celtics last season and mostly rode the pine for a very good team. He’s another late first rounder. When he did play Billy was a very good shooter inside and outside. I see more upside there as well as at the foul line where he’s been pretty bad so far. He can help on the boards against taller guys, and as a defender I think he’s going to become a lot tougher than he’s been so far. With his offensive capability I think he starts for a lot of teams… but in Boston’s twin tower setup, probably not in Beantown.Kenny Anderson – LL 35%. As a rookie last year Kenny did some nice things for the Titans. A mid first-round pick that’s looking like good value for where he was drafted, Mr. Chibbs handled the rock well for a rookie in his first season. Shooting is where we see the improvement coming, and if it happens (actually it better happen) he’ll be a weapon beside Archie Clark in the Mexico backcourt. He’ll never be Walt Frazier but I think he grows into a solid combo guard, sooner than later.Al Thornton – LL 25%. Al became sneaky good last season after getting regular minutes for the first time in his four-year career. I still see plenty of upside for the 23 year-old. I expect his defense and rebounding to continue to blossom and make him a capable starter for the Bulls in the ABCA. His getting from the line has got to come this season, and I expect it will. What Al won’t do in camp is become a lane-slasher but his outside touch for a big man makes him a commodity in certain offenses.Zelmo Beaty – LL 20%. Drafted in the middle of the first round three years ago, The Original Big Z is now 25 and the oldest player we’re discussing here. He’s starter grade now, has reached the twenty ppg level, and the potential is there to improve a shade or two more down low as a scorer and rebounder. That would make him even more of a handful. He seems from my perspective to outplay his ratings. These late-growth guys are fun and we’re sure the Widcat gm is happy to have Zelmo in the lineup every night. Lou Hudson – LL 45%. Lou was the number eigth selection last season, by the Boca Juniors, and the scouts at that time thought he could be a special player. Now one season and 82 starts later, Sweet Lou is poised to do it. Putting 14 points a night on the board in his first year with upside as a shooter from everywhere on the floor, we’re talking about a guy on his way to 22 ppg very soon. I also see his defense getting stronger too. If he camps well there’s no reason he can’t become an all-star. I really, really like Lou Hudson to make a move in 2004.Larry Johnson – LL 50%. The ABCA Rookie of the Year came into the league in full beast-mode, and I don’t think he’s done improving. Not at all. His Barkley-ish makeup is truly scary, and I expect camp improvements just about across the board. The Raptors will be riding Johnson like a Clydsdale this year. Rick Fox – LL: 25%. Rick Fox? Why Rick Fox? Tarheel Rick was a late first round pick of the Olimpia. He started 34 games for the club and got 20 minutes a game, not shooting with much efficiency but doing the little things well. He handles the ball fairly well for a young wing looks like he can eventually hold his own on the defensive end. We like his upside and future as a sixth man on a good team looks solid.
