Post by Portland on Jan 27, 2016 2:51:53 GMT
Chasing a playoff spot in a season’s final weeks is a pretty exciting prospect. In the America Conference we have an interesting battle for the #8 seed involving two strong contenders in Portland and Franca BC. Seattle and Washington are also still in the hunt but they’ve been struggling; each is now three games back with just two sims left and facing an uphill battle. So for now this article will focus on just the Portland Trailblazers and the Brazil Franca BC. The teams currently have identical 35-32 records and share some fascinating differences and similarities that will make the next 15 games exciting to follow.
Both teams began the season slowly: Portland started 0-6 and on December 17th sported a 9-17 record; Brazil did win its first three games then ran into a rough 4-13 patch. In the middle part of their schedule these two teams started to turn it around, making the necessary adjustments to climb into the race. At that time Seattle was the team to catch. Now the Franca FC are on a 13-4 tear with the last seven outings all victories, while the Blazers have eking out a 9-and-5 pace and been caught from behind.
Portland has the better home record, 24-10 vs. 22-10. Brazil has been better on the road, winning 13 times to Portland’s 11. The Blazers have been superior in point differential, 2.4 to 1.3. Franca BC has held opponents to fewer points, an important stat for a team hoping to win tough games down the stretch. In terms of generalizations, it can be said with confidence that Portland has a little bit more firepower on offense and Brazil is the stiffer defensive club. Neither team can call itself elite in either area.
The two clubs are similar in that they like to control the tempo, not turn the ball over, and value offensive efficiency. The Blazers aren’t much for stealing the ball but have been climbing the blocked shots leader board with Bill McGill (shown) now installed at power forward and Sam Bowie installed at center. Brazil isn’t a shot-blocking team but they’re more likely to pilfer the ball than Portland. The Trailblazers are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the ABCA, #1 right now in 3pt%. Franca is more toward the middle of the pack in that area; they’re not a mad bombing crew like we seen in Washington or Cairo. Brazil is clearly better at the free throw line than Portland.
The Trailblazers went into the season expecting Connie Hawkins – acquired last season from San Antonio for a first round pick – to carry the offense again, but interestingly he’s taken on less and less of the scoring burden as time’s gone on. He’s now serving as a highly-effective third big. Instead Portland has turned to Bill McGill to be the focal point of the offense, ably supported by the three point shooters. McGill’s 19.7/8.5 season averages aren’t stunning but they get a lot of wins for us in light of the matchups he creates. We have three players in the ABCA top 25 three-point shooters, with Dick McGuire just slightly outside that group. And after starting the year concerned about our rebounding, the McGill/Bowie tandem has pulled us up to respectability in that area. Another nice development for us has been the maturation of Doug McDermott, who’s proven to be a sharpshooter from long range and is poised to post career highs in all the important categories.
The Franca BC picture begins with The Pearl, 29 year-old Earl Monroe who’s spent his entire career in Brazil so far and led the team with his scoring and game management acumen. The high-price guard out of Winston-Salem College in North Carolina isn’t the scoring machine he once was, as he’s taking two less shots per game this season, but his assist-to-turnover ratio has improved with the addition of point guard Henry Bibby to be the primary ball distributor at the start of this season. They make a really tough back court tandem. And who are those assists going to? Arvydas Sabonis, the versatile giant who can still score the ball from just about anywhere on the floor. He’s another new face in Brazil this season but we expect the team will try to bring him back on a mid-length deal, even though he turned 28 this season. Andrew Gaze and the afore-mentioned Bibby have augmented the scoring attack to the extent that the team is capable of scoring what it needs to keep posting wins.
How do these two teams’ remaining schedules look? To be blunt, Franca BC has a brutal road to the post season schedule-wise, and Portland has what should be a walk in the park. Brazil’s remaining opponents have a .531 winning percentage to .462 for Portland. Brazil has only one game left against a team with less than 20 wins. Portland has four. Brazil has nine games left against teams with winning records, while Portland has seven (and only one of those is in the final seven games of their season.) Brazil does have two more home games than we do, but the strength of their opponents versus the strength of ours is probably going to negate that. One concern we’ve had all year in Portland is that we seem to lack a killer instinct, so I’m not sold on the belief that our easy schedule is going to propel us to the post season. We’ll see.
Portland’s Dick McGuire is the only injured player on either roster but we’re hoping he’s back for the final sim.
So the stage is set. It’s a shame these two don’t face each other again, but it will be well worth watching them slug it out with other teams right down to the wire. Also captivating – maybe – will be Seattle and Washington trying to keep their hopes alive and make it more than a two-team race at the end.
Both teams began the season slowly: Portland started 0-6 and on December 17th sported a 9-17 record; Brazil did win its first three games then ran into a rough 4-13 patch. In the middle part of their schedule these two teams started to turn it around, making the necessary adjustments to climb into the race. At that time Seattle was the team to catch. Now the Franca FC are on a 13-4 tear with the last seven outings all victories, while the Blazers have eking out a 9-and-5 pace and been caught from behind.
Portland has the better home record, 24-10 vs. 22-10. Brazil has been better on the road, winning 13 times to Portland’s 11. The Blazers have been superior in point differential, 2.4 to 1.3. Franca BC has held opponents to fewer points, an important stat for a team hoping to win tough games down the stretch. In terms of generalizations, it can be said with confidence that Portland has a little bit more firepower on offense and Brazil is the stiffer defensive club. Neither team can call itself elite in either area.
The two clubs are similar in that they like to control the tempo, not turn the ball over, and value offensive efficiency. The Blazers aren’t much for stealing the ball but have been climbing the blocked shots leader board with Bill McGill (shown) now installed at power forward and Sam Bowie installed at center. Brazil isn’t a shot-blocking team but they’re more likely to pilfer the ball than Portland. The Trailblazers are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the ABCA, #1 right now in 3pt%. Franca is more toward the middle of the pack in that area; they’re not a mad bombing crew like we seen in Washington or Cairo. Brazil is clearly better at the free throw line than Portland.
The Trailblazers went into the season expecting Connie Hawkins – acquired last season from San Antonio for a first round pick – to carry the offense again, but interestingly he’s taken on less and less of the scoring burden as time’s gone on. He’s now serving as a highly-effective third big. Instead Portland has turned to Bill McGill to be the focal point of the offense, ably supported by the three point shooters. McGill’s 19.7/8.5 season averages aren’t stunning but they get a lot of wins for us in light of the matchups he creates. We have three players in the ABCA top 25 three-point shooters, with Dick McGuire just slightly outside that group. And after starting the year concerned about our rebounding, the McGill/Bowie tandem has pulled us up to respectability in that area. Another nice development for us has been the maturation of Doug McDermott, who’s proven to be a sharpshooter from long range and is poised to post career highs in all the important categories.
The Franca BC picture begins with The Pearl, 29 year-old Earl Monroe who’s spent his entire career in Brazil so far and led the team with his scoring and game management acumen. The high-price guard out of Winston-Salem College in North Carolina isn’t the scoring machine he once was, as he’s taking two less shots per game this season, but his assist-to-turnover ratio has improved with the addition of point guard Henry Bibby to be the primary ball distributor at the start of this season. They make a really tough back court tandem. And who are those assists going to? Arvydas Sabonis, the versatile giant who can still score the ball from just about anywhere on the floor. He’s another new face in Brazil this season but we expect the team will try to bring him back on a mid-length deal, even though he turned 28 this season. Andrew Gaze and the afore-mentioned Bibby have augmented the scoring attack to the extent that the team is capable of scoring what it needs to keep posting wins. How do these two teams’ remaining schedules look? To be blunt, Franca BC has a brutal road to the post season schedule-wise, and Portland has what should be a walk in the park. Brazil’s remaining opponents have a .531 winning percentage to .462 for Portland. Brazil has only one game left against a team with less than 20 wins. Portland has four. Brazil has nine games left against teams with winning records, while Portland has seven (and only one of those is in the final seven games of their season.) Brazil does have two more home games than we do, but the strength of their opponents versus the strength of ours is probably going to negate that. One concern we’ve had all year in Portland is that we seem to lack a killer instinct, so I’m not sold on the belief that our easy schedule is going to propel us to the post season. We’ll see.
Portland’s Dick McGuire is the only injured player on either roster but we’re hoping he’s back for the final sim.
So the stage is set. It’s a shame these two don’t face each other again, but it will be well worth watching them slug it out with other teams right down to the wire. Also captivating – maybe – will be Seattle and Washington trying to keep their hopes alive and make it more than a two-team race at the end.
